MSTR → $100B Thesis
LEAPS $100 Strike | IV 95% | Vega Trap
Thesis charts are simulated/illustrative research data, not live market data.
Full range
Jul 7, 2026 → Jul 7, 2026
Data points
1,000 trading days
As of
2026-07-07
Timeframe
MAX (full period)
Slice range
Jul 7, 2026 → Jul 7, 2026
Slice points
1,000 days
Slice years
4.0Y equivalent
% of full
100%
Thesis
MSTR → $100B market cap (Bitcoin appreciation)
Instrument
LEAPS $100 Strike, IV 95%
Data
Monte Carlo (1,000 GBM paths, σ=75%)
Verdict
P(thesis) 25.6% < 30% threshold
DO NOT ENTER
Implied P(thesis): 25.6%|Minimum Threshold: 30.0%
The premium the market charges (IV 95%) costs more than the thesis expected value, even assuming 35% CAGR. Vega crush destroys PnL in sideways scenarios.
LEAP Greeks Strike $100
PREMIUM
$112.39
DELTA
0.8
THETA/DAY
-0.034
VEGA (IV%)
$1.56
25.6%
Calculated success probability
0%Cutoff (30%)100%